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Spotting a Stock Market Bottom

Most investors listen to the news to find out when we're at the end of a Bear Market and have reached a stock market bottom.

The sad part is that the news is a lagging indicator as to the true condition of the stock market.

Here is the truth. News channels always reveal things substantially after the fact and by the time they share the news with you, you've missed out on all the big moves.

No one truly knows when a Replica Handbags will end. If anyone says they do, run the other way.

  • So how do you know when the stock market has bottomed out and is moving on to higher territory?
  • How do you know when it's safe to start investing in an index fund?
  • How do you know when your account, which has been bleeding money, will finally start gaining ground again?

It's a technique called The Counting Method. It was taught to me by my trading mentor. I wish I could claim ownership of it, but it's been around for ages.

The author, William J. O'neil (the founder of Investors Business Daily), outlines the method in his book, 24 Essential Lessons for Investment Success.

I don't believe that Mr. O'Neil gave it a name, but my mentor called it The Counting Method. This method is only applied to Indices (Dow, NASDAQ, S&P, etc.) and cannot be accurately applied to individual stocks.

Stock Market bottom - the Monthly S&P 500 View

Many of you who have been reading these articles will find this method identify a stock market bottom familiar. Using the monthly chart of the S&P 500, we use the 24-month Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and three other indicators to identify the stock market bottom. While this method will not get you into the market at the bottom of the stock market, it will keep you from committing to early during a bear market rally, yet allowing you to enjoy the bulk of the new bull market. Many investors get trapped by entering a bear market to early.

As noted below, the bull market that began in 2003 when the S&P 500 rose through the 24 month EMA, a sign of a new bull market. In addition, when the RSI rises through 50, it is another sign the bull market has found a bottom. When MACD rises through the 9-month moving average, it will be another sign the bear market is over. The Slow Stochastic needs to rise through 20 to give another indication the bear market has bottomed out.

In reviewing the current period of the chart, it will take several months before the monthly S&P 500 approaches the 24-month EMA. The same holds for the RSI, MACD, and Slow Stochastic indicators. This is telling us the stock market has not bottomed yet and the stock market will remain in a bear market for a while longer.

This Is What a Market Bottom Looks Like

"I felt a great disturbance in the force ... as if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced. I fear something terrible has happened." Clearly a line uttered by Obi Wan Kenobi in the movie Star Wars, but how appropriate given our sense for the past few weeks that something is/was out of balance in the universe. Whether it is an Argentine default, another Jordan ATC (or LTCM) hedge fund debacle, a Japanese banking implosion, etc. is not really the point. The point is something is out of balance in the cosmos! We have opined that the current situation is reminiscent of the summer of 1998 when the stock market slid into the end of August and then dove 513 points on August 31st, setting up a decent tradable low. At that time nobody knew the reason for said slide -- news of the LTCM implosion didn’t surface until weeks later. Indeed, something is out of balance."

I penned those words on September 10, 2001, 24 hours before “a day that will live in infamy.” I revisit them today not just in memory of the friends I lost on 9/11, but because for the past few months something again feels out of balance in the universe, a sense that is being reflected in the equity markets.

One of the things affecting the country’s “balance” was the budget fracas, which surfaced the dysfunction of our government. It also increased the burgeoning “confidence crisis” our nation is feeling punctuated by last Friday’s freefall in the Dow. That Dow dive was partly in response to President Obama’s innocuous $447 billion jobs speech. In that speech he said “(you should) pass the jobs bill” 16 times. The key elements of the jobs plan can be retrieved here.

Interestingly, the Republicans chose not to respond to the president’s speech with the typical post-address rebuttal. That decision sparked this vitriolic verbiage from House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi: “The Republicans' refusal to respond to the president's proposal on jobs is not only disrespectful to him, but to the American people.” That night the US Senate did indeed vote to increase the debt ceiling by another $500 billion to fund the “jobs bill,” proving the entire budget angst of a month ago was a sham. And while the Republicans didn’t respond to the president’s speech, the stock market certainly did on Friday.

Also affecting the country’s “balance” has been the European mess. In last Tuesday’s written strategy comments I stated that the European event of the week would be Wednesday’s ruling by Germany’s Constitutional Court regarding the legality of the various bailouts. As expected, the court ruled the rescue plans were legal, which lifted the Dow by some 275 points on Wednesday. However, what went largely unreported were the court’s qualifications making future bailouts more difficult. One such clause apparently kills the issuance of Eurobonds. Subsequently, on Friday rumors swirled on the world’s bourses that Greece was going to default over the weekend and the rout was on; and as stocks slid, the US Dollar Index soared, the 10-year Treasury yield broke below 1.9%, and gold rose. The result left the dollar at a new reaction high and technically in a bull market by breaking out of a bottoming formation in the charts that looks strikingly similar to what it did before the Lehman bankruptcy. While it isn’t surprising the dollar’s strength helped buoy bonds, it is surprising that gold rallied along with the dollar.

Speaking to gold, for weeks I have opined the upside gaps visible in the charts are suggestive of an interim top and consequently partial positions should be sold even though I think gold will trade higher over the coming years. Rebalancing such positions is just a prudent asset allocation technique. Yet, I have been pounded with questions as to why I think gold will trade higher in the long run. Well, in addition to rising per capita incomes in the emerging and frontier markets, and a world awash with fiat currencies, there aren’t many of us left who have seen how a real gold bull market ends.

Come with me then to the land of yesteryear. It is the late 1970s where the Hunt brothers are attempting to “corner” the silver market. It was a heady time rife with speculation in precious metals stocks. The biggest speculation centered on a dozen tiny South African gold stocks possessing names like Stilfontain, Vaal Reefs, Western Deep Level, etc. Unfortunately, these stocks were unavailable on our Bunker Ramo quote machines. Consequently, quotes on these companies came in only twice a day over the Telex machine. At 10:30 a.m., and again at 2:30 p.m., the quotes (bid/ask) arrived and were dutifully ripped off of the Telex and carried to the clipboard that resided below the Trans-Lux electronic stock exchange ticker tape. Participants anxiously awaited these postings and feverously huddled around the clipboard before racing to their broker’s desks to place an order. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how a gold bull market ends. Importantly, we are nowhere near such a fever-pitched point.

Turning to the stock market, for the past few months I have likened the current decline, and subsequent bottoming process, to that of the October 1978/1979 bottoming sequences. Recall the 1978 affair took six to seven weeks to complete, while the 1979 pattern took four to five weeks. In both of those instances the Dow tested the selling-climax “lows” multiple times and in both cases actually marginally broke the “climax lows.” To be sure, the process of forming a bottom is designed to leave participants fearful and despondent, as can be seen in the attendant Fear, Hope, and Greed chart.

The Bear Market in Stocks: How Close to the Bottom?

Stock market had a recent decline and many investors and traders are wondering: Have we seen the bottom? Is the correction over? Robert Prechter explains why we still have not seen the long term stock market bottom. According to Prechter’s explanation, even March 2009 low is not the real bottom. Prechter shows that true market bottoms have much higher dividend yields. A major decline that is starting starting now is likely to break March 2009 lows and drive to lower prices in the coming years. Keep reading to understand why.

July 12, 2010

By Elliott Wave International

While many people spend time yearning for the financial markets to turn back up, a rare few have looked back in time to compare historical markets with the current situation - and then delivered a clear-eyed view of the future informed by knowledge of the past. One who has is Robert Prechter. When he thinks about markets and wave patterns, he goes back to the 1700s, the 1800s, and - most tellingly for our time now - the early 1900s when the Great Depression weighed down the United States in the late 1920s and early 1930s. With this large wash of history in mind, he is able to explain why he thinks we have a long way to go to get to the bottom of this bear market.

Here is an excerpt from EWI Independent Investor eBook, that answers the question: How close to the bottom are we?

Originally written by Robert Prechter for The Elliott Wave Theorist, January 2009

Some people contact us and say, “People are more bearish than I have ever seen them. This has to be a bottom.” The first half of this statement may well be true for many market observers. If one has been in the market for less than 14 years, one has never seen people this bearish. But market sentiment over those years was a historical anomaly. The annual dividend payout from stocks reached its lowest level ever: less than half the previous record. The P/E ratio reached its highest level ever: double the previous record. The price-to-book value ratio went into the stratosphere, as did the ratio between corporate bond yields and the same corporations’ stock dividend yields.

During nine and a half of those years, from October 1998 to March 2008, optimism dominated so consistently that bulls outnumbered bears among advisors (per the Investors Intelligence polls) for 481 out of 490 weeks. Investors got so used to this period of euphoria and financial excess that they have taken it as the norm.

With that period as a benchmark, the moderate slippage in optimism since 2007 does appear as a severe change. But observe a subtle irony: When commentators agree that investors are too bearish, they say so to justify being bullish. Thus, as part of the crowd, they are still seeking rationalizations for their continued optimism, and one of their best excuses is that everyone else is bearish. This would be reasoning, not rationalization, if it were true.

But is the net reduction in optimism since 2000/2007 in fact enough to indicate a market bottom? For the rest of this issue, we will update the key indicators from Conquer the Crash that so powerfully signaled a historic top in the making. When we are finished, you will know whether or not the Knoxville security doors is at bottom.

The Bear Market in Stocks: How Close to the Bottom?

Stock market had a recent decline and many investors and traders are wondering: Have we seen the bottom? Is the correction over? Robert Prechter explains why we still have not seen the long term stock market bottom. According to Prechter’s explanation, even March 2009 low is not the real bottom. Prechter shows that true market bottoms have much higher dividend yields. A major decline that is starting starting now is likely to break March 2009 lows and drive to lower prices in the coming years. Keep reading to understand why.

Spotting einen Stock Market Bottom

Die meisten Anleger Nachrichten hören, um herauszufinden, wenn wir am Ende eines Bärenmarktes sind und erreicht haben, eine Börse Boden.

Der traurige Teil ist, dass die Nachricht ein nachlaufender Indikator über den wahren Zustand des Aktienmarktes ist.

Hier ist die Wahrheit. Aktuelles Kanäle immer enthüllen Dinge wesentlich nach der Tat und durch die Zeit teilen sie die Nachricht, mit Ihnen, Sie haben auf allen großen Bewegungen verpasst.

Niemand weiß wirklich, wenn ein Bärenmarkt endet. Wenn jemand sagt sie es tun, laufen in die andere Richtung.

So wie Sie wissen, wann der Aktienmarkt die Talsohle erreicht und bewegt sich an eine höhere Gebiet?

Woher weißt du, wann es sicher ist zu investieren in einen Indexfonds?

Woher wissen Sie, wenn Ihr Konto, das geblutet hat Geld, schließlich startet wieder auf dem Vormarsch?



Es ist eine Technik namens Die Zählmethode. Es wurde mir von meinem Trading-Mentor lehrte. Ich wünschte ich könnte das Eigentum an sie behaupten, aber es ist herum für Alter gewesen.

Der Autor, William J. O'Neil (der Gründer des Investors Business Daily), beschreibt die Methode in seinem Buch, 24 wesentlichen Lektionen für den Anlageerfolg.

Ich glaube nicht, dass Herr O'Neil gab es einen Namen, aber mein Mentor nannte es die Zählmethode. Diese Methode wird nur auf Indizes (Dow, NASDAQ, S & P, etc.) angelegt und können nicht präzise auf einzelne Aktien aufgebracht werden.


Stock Market unten - die Monats-S & P 500 anzeigen

Viele von Ihnen, die gelesen haben, diese Artikel finden Sie diese Methode identifizieren Aktienmarkt Boden vertraut. Mit dem Monats-Chart des S & P 500, verwenden wir die 24-Monats-Exponential Moving Average (EMA) und drei andere Indikatoren, um den Aktienmarkt Boden zu identifizieren. Während diese Methode nicht erhalten werden Sie in den Markt am unteren Ende des Aktienmarktes, werden Sie von der Begehung zu früh während einer Bärenmarkt-Rally zu halten, so dass Sie noch den Großteil der neuen Bullenmarkt zu genießen. Viele Anleger gehen durch die Eingabe einer Baisse zu früh gefangen.

Wie unten aufgeführt, der Bullenmarkt, der 2003 begann, wenn der S & P 500 stieg durch die EMA 24 Monate, ein Zeichen für einen neuen Bullenmarkt. Darüber hinaus, wenn der RSI über 50 steigt, ist es ein weiteres Zeichen der Bullenmarkt hat einen Boden gefunden. Wenn der MACD über die 9-Monats-Durchschnitt steigt, wird es ein weiteres Zeichen der Bärenmarkt vorbei ist. Der Slow Stochastic muss durch 20 Anlass zu einer weiteren Indikation die Baisse hat die Talsohle durchschritten zu geben.

Bei der Überprüfung der laufenden Periode des Diagramms, wird es mehrere Monate dauern, bevor die monatlichen S & P 500 nähert sich der 24-Monats-EMA. Das gleiche gilt für den RSI, MACD und Slow Stochastic Indikatoren. Dies sagt uns der Aktienmarkt die Talsohle noch nicht und der Aktienmarkt in einem Bärenmarkt noch eine Weile bleiben.

So sieht ein Markt Bottom aussieht

"Ich spürte eine große Erschütterung der Macht ... als ob Millionen von Stimmen plötzlich vor Angst schrie und wurden plötzlich zum Schweigen gebracht. Ich fürchte, dass etwas Schlimmes passiert." Offensichtlich eine Linie geäußert von Obi Wan Kenobi in den Film Star Wars, aber wie entsprechende gegeben unseren Sinn für den letzten Wochen, dass etwas ist / war aus dem Gleichgewicht im Universum. Ob es ein argentinischer Standard ist, ist eine andere Long Term Capital Management (LTCM oder) Hedge-Fonds-Debakel, eine japanische Bank Implosion, etc. nicht wirklich der Punkt. Der Punkt ist, etwas aus dem Gleichgewicht im Kosmos! Wir haben meinte, dass die derzeitige Situation erinnert an den Sommer 1998 ist, wenn der Aktienmarkt rutschte in die Ende August und dann tauchte 513 Punkte auf 31. August, die Einrichtung eines anständigen handelbar niedrig. Damals wusste niemand den Grund für den Schieber - Nachricht von der LTCM Implosion nicht Oberfläche, bis Wochen später. In der Tat ist etwas aus der Balance. "



Ich schrieb diese Worte am 10. September 2001, 24 Stunden vor "einem Tag, der in Schande weiterleben wird." Ich überdenken sie heute nicht nur in Erinnerung an die Freunde, die ich am 11.09 verloren, sondern weil für den letzten Monaten wieder etwas fühlt sich aus dem Gleichgewicht im Universum, ein Gefühl, die in den Aktienmärkten widerspiegelt.

Eines der Dinge, die das Land der "Balance" war das Budget Aufruhr, die die Dysfunktion von unserer Regierung aufgetaucht. Es erhöhte auch die aufkeimende "Vertrauenskrise" Unsere Nation ist das Gefühl von vergangenen Freitag im freien Fall in den Dow unterbrochen. Dass Dow Tauchgang war teilweise als Reaktion auf harmlose 447.000.000.000 $ Präsident Obamas Rede Arbeitsplätze. In dieser Rede sagte er: "(Sie sollten) passieren die Arbeitsplätze Bill" 16-mal. Die wesentlichen Elemente des Plans Arbeitsplätze können hier abgerufen werden.

Interessanterweise wählten die Republikaner nicht auf die Rede des Präsidenten mit dem typischen Post-Adresse Gegendarstellung zu reagieren. Diese Entscheidung löste diese hasserfüllten Gerede von House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi: "Die Republikaner 'Weigerung, sich den Vorschlag des Präsidenten auf die Arbeitsplätze zu reagieren ist nicht nur respektlos zu ihm, aber an das amerikanische Volk." In dieser Nacht der US-Senat in der Tat stimmen zu erhöhen die Schulden durch eine andere Decke 500.000.000.000 $ an den Fonds "Jobs Bill", beweist das gesamte Budget der Angst vor einem Monat war eine Farce. Und während die Republikaner nicht auf die Rede des Präsidenten reagieren, der Aktienmarkt hat am Freitag sicher.

Auch Auswirkungen auf das Land "Balance" hat die Europäische Durcheinander. In schriftlichen Strategie am vergangenen Dienstag die Kommentare, die ich angegeben, dass die Europäische Ereignis der Woche würden am Mittwoch sein Urteil vom Verfassungsgericht in Deutschland über die Rechtmäßigkeit der verschiedenen Rettungsaktionen. Wie erwartet, entschied das Gericht, die Rettungspläne waren legal, wobei hob den Dow von einigen 275 Punkten am Mittwoch. Allerdings ging weitgehend ignoriert worden waren, was die gerichtliche Qualifikationen machen Zukunft Rettungsaktionen erschweren. Eine solche Klausel offenbar tötet die Emission von Eurobonds. Anschließend, am Freitag Gerüchte wirbelte auf der Welt Börsen dass Griechenland wollte über das Wochenende Verzug und die Niederlage war auf, und der Vorrat geschoben, der US Dollar Index stieg, der 10-jährige Treasury-Rendite brach unter 1,9% und Gold stieg . Das Ergebnis ließ den Dollar in ein neues Reaktionsgefäß hohen und technisch in einem Bullenmarkt durch Ausbrechen einer Bodenbildung Bildung in den Charts, die auffallend ähnlich, was es tat, bevor der Lehman-Pleite sieht. Zwar ist es nicht verwunderlich ist, die Stärke des Dollars half Boje Anleihen ist es überraschend, dass das Gold zusammen mit dem Dollar erholte.

Im Gespräch mit Gold, für Wochen habe ich meinte die Lücken sichtbar den Kopf in den Charts sind suggestive eines Zwischenberichts oben und damit partielle Positionen sollten verkauft, obwohl ich denke, Gold wird höher notieren in den kommenden Jahren werden. Rebalancing solchen Positionen ist nur eine vorsichtige Asset Allocation-Technik. Doch, habe ich mit Fragen, warum ich denke, Gold wird höher notieren auf lange Sicht worden hämmerte. Nun, zusätzlich zu den steigenden Pro-Kopf-Einkommen in den Schwellen-und Frontier Markets, und eine Welt, überflutet mit Fiat-Währungen, es gibt nicht viele von uns übrig haben, die, wie ein echter Gold-Bullenmarkt Enden gesehen.

Komm mit mir dann in das Land von gestern. Es sind die späten 1970er Jahre, wo die Gebrüder Hunt, um "Ecke" die silberne Markt versucht werden. Es war eine berauschende Zeit voller Spekulationen im Edelmetall-Aktien. Die größte Spekulation auf ein Dutzend winzige südafrikanische Goldaktien besitzen Namen wie Stilfontain, Vaal Reefs, Western Deep Level, etc. Leider zentriert waren diese Bestände nicht verfügbar auf unserem Bunker Ramo Quote-Maschinen. Folglich kam Zitate auf dieser Unternehmen in nur zweimal am Tag über den Fernschreiber. Um 10:30 Uhr, und wieder um 2:30 Uhr kamen die Anführungszeichen (Bid / Ask) und wurden pflichtbewusst aus der Telex gerissen und in die Zwischenablage durchgeführt, dass unterhalb der Trans-Lux elektronische Börse Tickerlaufband residierte. Die Teilnehmer erwarteten besorgt diese Buchungen und fieberhaft scharten sich um die Zwischenablage vor Rennen, um ihre Broker-Schreibtische um eine Bestellung aufzugeben. Und das, meine Damen und Herren, ist, wie eine Gold-Hausse endet. Wichtig ist, dass wir nicht annähernd so einem fieberhaften Punkt.

Mit Blick auf die Börse, in den letzten paar Monaten habe ich den aktuellen Rückgang, und anschließender Bodenbildung Prozess, der von der Oktoberrevolution 1978/1979 die Talsohle Sequenzen verglichen. Rufen Sie die 1978-Affäre dauerte 6-7 Wochen in Anspruch, während das Muster 1979 nahm vier bis fünf Wochen. In diesen beiden Fällen ist der Dow den Verkauf-Höhepunkt "Tiefs" mehrfach getestet und in beiden Fällen tatsächlich marginal brach die "Höhepunkt Tiefen." Um sicher zu sein, wird der Prozess der Bildung einer Unterseite entwickelt, um die Teilnehmer zu verlassen ängstlich und verzagt, als können in der begleitenden Angst, Hoffnung und Gier Diagramm ersichtlich ist.
Der Bärenmarkt bei Aktien: Wie man in Bodennähe?

Aktienmarkt vor kurzem einen Rückgang und viele Investoren und Händler fragen sich: Haben wir die Talsohle erreicht? Ist die Korrektur vorbei? Robert Prechter erklärt, warum wir immer noch nicht die langfristige Aktienmarkt unten gesehen. Nach Prechter Erklärung, auch niedrige März 2009 ist nicht der wirkliche Grund. Prechter zeigt, dass die tatsächlichen Marktverhältnissen Böden deutlich höhere Dividendenrenditen haben. Ein wesentlicher Rückgang, beginnend ab jetzt wird voraussichtlich bis März 2009 und Tiefs Laufwerk zu niedrigeren Preisen zu brechen in den kommenden Jahren. Doch lesen Sie weiter zu verstehen, warum.

12. Juli 2010

Von Elliott Wave International

Während viele Menschen Zeit verbringen Sehnsucht für die Finanzmärkte wieder nach oben drehen, haben eine seltene wenige in der Zeit zurück zu historischen Märkten mit der aktuellen Situation zu vergleichen, sah - und lieferte dann einen klaren Augen in die Zukunft durch Wissen über die Vergangenheit informiert. Einer, der hat es Robert Prechter. Als er über Märkte und Wellenmuster denkt, er kehrt zurück zu den 1700er, den 1800er Jahren, und - ganz treffend für unsere Zeit jetzt - den frühen 1900er Jahren, als die Große Depression nach den Vereinigten Staaten wog in den späten 1920er und frühen 1930er Jahre. Bei dieser großen Wäsche der Geschichte im Hinterkopf, ist er in der Lage zu erklären, warum er uns noch einen langen Weg zu gehen, um auf den Grund dieser Baisse zu bekommen glaubt.

Hier ist ein Auszug aus EWI unabhängiger Investor eBook, das die Frage beantwortet: Wie auf den Grund zu schließen sind wir?

Zitat von Robert Prechter für The Elliott-Wellen-Theoretiker, Januar 2009 geschrieben

Einige Leute Kontakt mit uns auf und sagen: "Die Menschen sind bearish, als ich je gesehen. Dies muss ein Ende sein. "Die erste Hälfte dieser Aussage kann gut sein, für viele Marktbeobachter wahr. Wenn man auf dem Markt für weniger als 14 Jahre gewesen ist, hat man nie gesehen, wie Menschen diese bearish. Aber die Marktstimmung in diesen Jahren war eine historische Anomalie. Die jährliche Ausschüttung von Aktien erreichte den niedrigsten Stand aller Zeiten: weniger als die Hälfte den bisherigen Rekord. Das P / E Ratio erreichte den höchsten Stand aller Zeiten: das Doppelte des bisherigen Rekord. Das Kurs-Buchwert-Verhältnis ging in die Stratosphäre, ebenso wie das Verhältnis zwischen Renditen von Unternehmensanleihen und den gleichen Unternehmen 'Lager Dividendenrenditen.

Während neuneinhalb jener Jahre, von Oktober 1998 bis März 2008, dominiert Optimismus so konsequent, dass die Bullen Bären unter den Beratern (nach den Umfragen Investors Intelligence) Unterzahl für 481 von 490 Wochen. Die Anleger haben so zu dieser Zeit der Euphorie und finanziellen Überschuss eingesetzt, dass sie es als Norm genommen.

Mit dieser Zeit als Maßstab, wird der Schlupf in gemäßigten Optimismus seit 2007 als starke Veränderung erscheinen. Aber beobachten eine feine Ironie: Als Kommentatoren sind sich einig, dass die Anleger zu bearish sind, sagen sie damit zu rechtfertigen, als bullish. So wie ein Teil der Menge, werden sie noch auf der Suche Rationalisierungen für ihre anhaltende Optimismus, und eines ihrer besten Ausreden ist, dass alle anderen auch bearish ist. Dies würde Argumentation, nicht Rationalisierung sein, wenn es wahr wäre.

Aber ist die Netto-Reduktion der Optimismus seit 2000/2007 in der Tat genug, um einen Markt unten zeigen? Für den Rest dieser Ausgabe werden wir aktualisieren die Kennzahlen von Conquer the Crash so stark, dass eine historische oben in der Herstellung signalisiert. Als wir fertig sind, werden Sie wissen, ob der Markt am Boden ist.

Der Bärenmarkt bei Aktien: Wie man in Bodennähe?

Aktienmarkt vor kurzem einen Rückgang und viele Investoren und Händler fragen sich: Haben wir die Talsohle erreicht? Ist die Korrektur vorbei? Robert Prechter erklärt, warum wir immer noch nicht die langfristige Aktienmarkt unten gesehen. Nach Prechter Erklärung, auch niedrige März 2009 ist nicht der wirkliche Grund. Prechter zeigt, dass die tatsächlichen Marktverhältnissen Böden deutlich höhere Dividendenrenditen haben. Ein wesentlicher Rückgang, beginnend ab jetzt wird voraussichtlich bis März 2009 und Tiefs Laufwerk zu niedrigeren Preisen zu brechen in den kommenden Jahren. Doch lesen Sie weiter zu verstehen, warum.

By Steve Christ
Thursday, December 18th, 2008

Nuts.

That's what I was thinking on the morning of October 10th. After falling nearly 20% in just seven days, the markets were at it again. For the seventh straight session, the markets were dropping like a stone.

But unlike most investors on that nasty morning, I wasn't selling stocks. I was buying them.

That's because, in my opinion, the markets weren't just oversold, they were forecasting something else entirely. They were pricing in a depression that just wasn't going to happen. To me that was kind of crazy.

Now, of course, I was well aware that there were problems—big problems. I had been writing about them for years. I just didn't believe they were big enough to bring back the ghost of Tom Joad.

A grinding recession? Absolutely.

But apples and cardboard boxes to sell them in? Not a chance.

So instead of selling into the panic, we went long that morning, buying up blue chip stocks at a major discount.

Now, some three months of sleepless nights later, it is beginning to look like the October stock market bottom is finally going to hold.

That's why now is the time to take another serious look at the markets, as we head into a year likely to be much better than the last.

6 Reasons to be Bullish in 2009

Here's why.

I call them my six reasons to be bullish in 2009. And while not one of them is enough to turn it all around individually, taken together they add up to a stock market bottom.

They are:

1. The Fed Is Now All In

If you've heard it once, you've heard it a thousand times by now: You can't fight the Fed. And with the Fed's latest policy statement released on Tuesday, it is now clear to the markets that Helicopter Ben has finally arrived.

On Tuesday, the Fed not only lowered rates to near zero but also stated that they would hold them there for basically as long as it takes. Moreover, the Fed also went out of the box by promising to use its balance sheet to become part of the market itself.

As a result, it is now quite apparent that the Fed will do whatever it takes to prop up the economy. The Fed hopes the end result will be increased borrowing to purchase higher-risk financial assets. This could restart the securities markets inside the United States as well as finance higher levels of consumer spending and business investment.

Will it work? That's the $64,000 question. However, it is a net positive for the markets in the meantime.

2. The Obama Stimulus Package

Agree with it or not, a giant-sized stimulus package is just weeks away. With the change in administration, an economic recovery plan will likely be the first thing out of the box.

In fact, just this morning President-elect Barack Obama announced he is putting together the groundwork for a giant economic stimulus package, possibly as high as $850 billion over the next two years. In truth, it could end up over $1 trillion.

The President-elect is promoting a recovery plan that would feature spending on infrastructure projects, renewable energy, renovating schools, and technology spending.

There also could be some form of tax relief with tax cuts aimed at middle- and lower-income taxpayers, according to the Obama team.

The result is an economic money bomb that, when combined with the Fed's actions, should be enough to kick start the economy in 2009.

Of course, how it all plays out in the last two years of an Obama administration may be another story. But, for today at least, the future is now.

3. Mortgage Rates Are Falling

The Fed recently announced that it plans to buy up to $500 billion of mortgages guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae, plus another $100 billion of the corporate debt of government agencies. This news has sent interest rates on 30-year mortgages tumbling.

In fact, as of today, the average 30-yr. fixed rate is a paltry 5.08%. That's roughly where it was in June 2003, when the mortgage mess began. That will not only give families a chance to refinance but also help unlock the frozen credit markets.

And while it wouldn't be enough to put a permanent floor under housing, it could be enough to generate a massive do-over in the mortgage world. To me, that would be a net positive (provided they managed to get it right this time).

That's because as home owners everywhere — and I do mean everywhere — refinanced to lower rates, the number of good loans would go up while the number of bad loans would fall right off those troubled bank balance sheets.

And after watching the yields on 10-yr. notes absolutely fall off the table in the last two weeks, the idea may not be as crazy as it sounds.

Here's why...

Historically, 30-yr. mortgage rates have been priced about 175 basis points (bps) above 10-yr. note yields. But those spreads widened with the credit crisis to well over 200 bps. — keeping rates higher than normal.

However, those same spreads fell back to 175bps last week. That means now that 10-yr. yields have also fallen, Hank Paulson's 4.5% mortgage rate is actually in range.

In fact, as of today, 10 yr. yields are a paltry 2.10%. And if the Fed's "quantitative" easing can keep them there or push them lower, a 4.5% rate could easily become a reality.

4. Volatility Is Becoming Less Volatile

For the VIX indicator it has been something of a banner year, as fear overran the markets. But as fearful as markets have been lately, the VIX is actually now in a downtrend, trading well below its 50-day moving average.

In fact, for the first time since Sept. 29, the VIX traded below 60 for all five trading sessions last week, ending up at 54.28. Today, it has fallen even further to a low of nearly 46.

That's an early indicator that hedge funds and other investors have nearly finished liquidating their holdings for the year. The falling dollar is another, but that's another story.

It also confirms an increasingly bullish sentiment toward equities. As the American Association of Individual Investors recently reported, bullish sentiment among respondents to its survey rose to a four-week high of 38% this week, up from 27% last week. Meanwhile, bearish sentiment fell to a five-week low of 40% this week, down from 48% last week.

That only underscores the recent uptrend, since both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones industrial average have climbed 12 of last 18 trading sessions. And perhaps more significantly, the stock market has actually risen on days when the news has been awful.

That's bullish.

5. The Recession Is Twelve Months Old

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the U.S. economy slipped into recession one year ago, which means we have been in the thick of it for 12 months now.

The bigger question now is how long it will last.

To some extent, it pays to look at the historical record. History doesn't repeat itself, but it does tend to rhyme.

Here is a look at the durations of fourteen previous recessions, all of which we survived. They are:

  • 1926-27....13 months
  • 1929-33 ....43 months
  • 1937-38... 13 months
  • 1945.........8 months
  • 1948-49....11 months
  • 1953-54....10 months
  • 1957-58....8 months
  • 1960-61...10 months
  • 1970........11 months
  • 1973-75...16 months
  • 1980.........6 months
  • 1981-82....16 months
  • 1990-91....8 months
  • 2001.........8 months

As you can see, there have been many of them, and that is a lesson in and of itself. As bad as it may feel, recessions do happen. The good news is that the world doesn't come to an end, and neither do the markets.

Moreover, the median length of a recession has been 11 months. From a historical perspective that means we are likely getting closer to the end. And if we assume that this one will go as long as 24 months, now is actually the time when you would begin to see the signs of a stock market recovery.

And finally.....

6. Stocks Are Cheap

Believe it or not, this one is true. Unfortunately, it took a 40%+ drop in the broader markets to get there. That's because the earning projections for 2009 were completely out of line with reality, since those figures were over $100.

The question now, though, is how far they will actually fall. My guess is to $60 a share, which could end up being conservative. If that is true that puts the markets completely in line with their historical averages.

In fact, for the S&P 500, the average price per $1 dollar of earnings paid at market bottoms has been 13.8 times since 1957. That means when you take that 13.8 and multiply it by $60, you get a value of 828 for the S&P 500. That is above the 752-point low we hit on November 20th.

That makes stocks relatively cheap as we head into the new year.

So as I've been discussing now for weeks, it's actually time to buy stocks these days—not sell them. After all, the stock market bottoms long before the overall economy does.

And if you don't have the stomach for it, I completely understand. However, if you can see the day that all of this turmoil ends, now is the time take Wayne Gretzky's advice...

"Skate to where the puck is going to be," he said, "not to where it has been."

Stock Market in 2012

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Find out where the experts believe the stock market is headed in 2012....
Eight Reasons to Be Bullish Next Year:-
1. Time heals all wounds.
The scars of the financial crisis may be deep, but the fact is four years later, the hallmarks that caused the crash are all in the rearview mirror.
It's not 2008 all over again, and the doom-and-gloomers will be on the wrong side of the trade again in 2012.
For the record, the S&P 500 earned $543.2 billion in 2009, $792.8 billion in 2010, and is expected to earn $910.3 billion in 2011. What's more, the S&P 500 is expected to earn $1.04 trillion in 2012.
The point is, while there have been declines and long periods of consolidation, history tells us they are only temporary given enough time. Believe it or not, the bull market will return.
Here's a bet on 2012 as the business cycle kicks back in.
3. The economy is expanding.
The long story short here is pretty simple: We are experiencing a moderate growth expansion— not some bearish apocalypse.

4. Job growth will improve.
With the profits at an all-time high and the economy now expanding, job growth will eventually begin to follow suit.
(Keep in mind that job growth is always a lagging indicator. It's no different this time around.)
According to John Herrmann, senior fixed-income strategist at State Street Global Markets, there's plenty of reason to be optimistic on the job front. Herrmann says private sector payrolls will increase an average of 160,000 per month for the rest of this year — and by 200,000 per month in the first four months of 2012.
Absent the ongoing shrinkage of government jobs, that means 1,120,000 new private sector jobs will be created by May 1 if Herrmann is accurate in his predictions.
That will be a huge win for the markets going into the first half of 2012, even if Herrmann ultimately misses the high-water mark.

5. The housing market bottoms.
Six years after I made my call for housing to drop by 30%, it finally begins to happen. Down 35% nationwide, home prices reach bottom in 2012, spurred on by pent-up demand and the lowest interest rates of all time, thanks to the Fed pushing rates down on mortgage bonds.
The result is the one thing the market has found to be most elusive of all: the return of housing demand going into the spring buying season.
Admittedly, it won't be blockbuster... but it will be enough to change the housing conversation next year. And as this change begins to unfold, it is going to be a huge plus both psychologically and in terms of GDP growth.
Negative housing news may not move the market these days, but positive news undoubtedly will. Expect real estate to surprise to the upside in 2012.
8. That makes stocks cheap.
As profit margins rise and corporate earnings hit new highs, the S&P 500 is currently undervalued.
As always, it starts with profits. They are what really make the market go round.
In that regard, on a bottom-up basis the S&P 500 earned $56.88 in 2009, $83.18 in 2010, and is expected to earn $95.46 in 2011. It's estimated the EPS of the S&P 500 will cross the $100 mark for the first time ever, reaching $104.95 in 2012...
On a P/E basis, that means at the 1,186 level, the S&P 500 is currently trading at 11.3X 2012 earnings. That's historically cheap. Even at just 13X 2012 earnings, the S&P is worth 1,365.
Better yet, at a P/E of just 14.2, the S&P 500 would hit 1,490 — or be within a whisper of the old high going back to 2007. (For the record, the average P/E ratio for the S&P since the 1870s has been about 15.)
Again, that makes stocks relatively cheap as we head into 2012... especially with 10-year note yields hovering in the 2.0% range.
Of course, the great unknown in all of this is Europe. And admittedly it's a big one — but here's a guess they eventually blink and backstop the whole continent with few trillion in 2012.
The bottom line: 2012 is going to be a great year for equities. Buy stocks today.
By the way, if you're interested in how accurate my crystal ball was last year, I predicted the S&P would remain range-bound in 2011, trading between 1,100 and 1,300...
For the record, the S&P traded in range between 1100 and 1360. Not bad.
Your bargain-hunting analyst,

Below is the macro-outlook from our annual report to our investors.

S&P500 (SPY) earnings yields (7%) versus 10-year Treasury yields (2%) make the U.S. stock market quite cheap. Europe, (9%) versus (2% to 3%), is even cheaper. Some say that these interest rates are fabricated by Fed policy, and the natural rate is higher. But the Keynesian bottom line is that there is a lot of excess capacity in the global economy today, so that inflation is not a risk in most developed countries. Monetarists argue that out-of-control government money printing to finance their debt is inflationary and should lead to higher interest rates, based on the theory that MV=PQ (M: money supply, V: velocity of money, P: prices, Q: quantity, with V and Q being constant over the long run, so that rising money supply leads to rising prices). But are velocity and quantity constant? The U.S. has tripled its monetary base since 2008, and we still are not seeing any inflationary effects.

Corporate operating margins peaked in Q3 and are near record-high levels. But we could be at higher sustainable operating margins today than in the past due to technology (e.g. cloud computing benefits), low wages, and restructurings. Alain Rossman, in discussing the cheap yet valuable resources available to his startup Klip using such services as Amazon’s (AMZN) Mechanical Turk labor marketplace stated “You can achieve 10 times more now with 10 times fewer people and 10 times less capital. This is unbelievable. This is the golden age of startups, and I hope America and everyone else takes advantage of it.” Corporate America also gets it, and is in the early days of saving money hand-over-fist from outsourcing certain activities to the “cloud”.

We have had U.S. sovereign credit downgrades, a euro Crisis with risk of huge global defaults, and even decelerated earnings growth in the second half of 2011 thrown at the U.S. stocks, but the resilient U.S. stock market ended the year roughly unchanged from one year ago. European stock markets were hit much harder, and were down in the double-digits during 2011. If the European authorities and its European Financial Stability Facility take actions to alleviate Euro risk such as were taken in late December 2011 (resulting in Italian sovereign yields falling from 6% to 3%), then we can expect a short-term risk-relief rally in Europe and other markets.

Over the next twelve months, the biggest issue is the duration of the economic slowdown that began in 2H 2011, and its impact on corporate earnings. Is it only a mid-cycle blip or a full-blown recession? At least in the US, it appears not to be a full-blown recession judging from recent employment data and retail sales (albeit with heavy price promotions).

But what kind of recovery is the U.S. experiencing? Many regions (excluding Washington DC and Silicon Valley) and sectors like construction and manufacturing are not recovering at all. So, when will this recovery become more broad-based? The answer is not anytime soon. The current U.S. savings rate of 3.5% is the lowest since 2007. Consumer debt is currently at a two-year high. Recent jobs created were mostly low-paying jobs like retail, temporary services, and leisure/hospitality. The middle-class is suffering from the skyrocketing cost of maintaining their social status and perceived affluence pathway. Referred to as the toil index by economist Robert Frank, it tracks the number of hours a median earner must work each month to earn the implicit rent for a median-priced house. The toil index rose from a postwar low of 41 hours a month in 1970 to more than 100 hours in 2005 (aided by dual-working households). Although it has fallen since the housing bubble burst, the middle-class squeeze persists. Thus, although the U.S. may not be in a full-blown recession, it certainly does not feel like an economic recovery. Anecdotally, people now appear to appreciate the things they have, and are making do with less.

Ironically, this economic backdrop is not bearish for the stock market. Frugality by consumers and U.S. corporations (many with large net cash balances) is a virtue not a vice. A low-growth, productivity-led recovery with little inflationary pressure is bullish for stock markets. Moreover, the stock market is cheap today, especially in comparison to bonds or cash. It would take a major earnings decline to derail this bull market, which is unlikely. The next twelve months could see a double-digit rise in stock markets in the U.S. and Asia, driven not by earnings growth, but by rising valuations. Europe is a wild card, with a lot more upside, but also more downside, depending on macro-political factors. But if I were to take a bet, I would side with a bullish surprise for European stocks which is not reflected in today’s stock prices.

MACRO INDICATORS

Economic Trends (score 0–10 per trend)

Score

Score

Comments

Jan-12

Jul-11

Consumer

7

3

US job growth and retail sales picking up, Europe flattening, Asian consumption boom continues.

Industrial Orders

3

7

Indus prod fell in Nov in U.S. & EU, 78% U.S. capacity utilization is below 80% long-term average, – leaves room for more growth.

Supply & Demand Conditions

4

2

DRAM prices bottomed-out in November, and stabilized in Dec. NAND flash MLC recently declined 5% on average in 2H Dec. Semi inventories are lean, but waiting for end-demand to pick up.

Capital Markets

Interest rate Outlook

4

5

Euro uncertainty creates higher risk premiums in Asian and Latin American debt. European sovereign yields declined in late December following indirect support from EU authorities. U.S. Treasury bond yields benefitted from euro-related flight to quality. But how much lower than 2% can they go? Short rates are now near-zero in Europe as well as the U.S. U.K. looks dodgy, with inflation near 5%, and a weak economy despite stimulus.

Bond - Earnings Yields (30 points)

27

22

S&P 500 earnings yld of 7% minus 10-yr Treasury yld of 2% creates above –norm 5% yld gap. Europe earnings yld of 9% versus core sovereign yields of 2% to 3% are even cheaper.

Derivative of change in Earnings Forecasts

3

2

Tech EPS trended down in 2H 2011, especially semis. Big questions is this a mid-cycle inventory correction, or a longer cyclical downturn. Certain niches like social internet, cloud computing & smart phones continue to do well.

Technical

Crossover of 50 & 200-day moving averages

6

4

Recent rally moved up the 50-day moving average closer to the 200-day moving average, but still below.

Exogenous Factors

Sovereign Credit Crises

2

2

We are in unprecedented times. Investors may not appreciate the full ramifications of the pending sovereign debt crisis.

Final Score (0 – 100)

56

47

Up from 47 in July, 47 one year ago, and 49 eighteen months ago.

Beyond 2012, our major worry is the bloated balance sheets of leading developed world countries. Governments of the U.S., Japan, U.K., and parts of Continental Europe are simply spending more money than they have. Political gridlock in face of huge fiscal deficits is a ticking time bomb, but apparently with a very slow fuse. At the end of the day, there are three outcomes. The positive outcome is having economic growth provide the resources to pay off the debt, of course combined with reasonable fiscal policies. A second outcome is to inflate your way out of the debt problem, putting a damper on the liquidity-driven rallies we have become accustomed to. The third and most painful outcome would be deflation and default, which the Fed and certain European counterparts are working so hard to avoid. Initially, the stock market would crash, but this catharsis could lay the foundation for a longer-term bull market.

Our final litmus test is to take what the market gives us. In the second half of 2011, we started paying up for certain high-growth stocks during market dips. In the first half, we were only shorting.

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